Tag: Free Cash Flow

  • AWS Earned 63% of Amazon’s Q3 Operating Profit; Its Growth Now Paces a $220B AI Build

    AWS Earned 63% of Amazon’s Q3 Operating Profit; Its Growth Now Paces a $220B AI Build

    TL;DR · 30-second read

    The Short Version

    Amazon’s computer-rental business, Amazon Web Services, brought in about $46 billion in three months and grew 39%, its fastest pace in nearly five years. It produced almost two-thirds of the profit from Amazon’s operations, while the shopping business grew far more slowly.

    That rental business is why Amazon plans to spend $220 billion this year, mostly on warehouse-sized buildings full of artificial intelligence chips. Over the past year, Amazon spent about $42 billion more on buildings and equipment than its operations brought in.

    Investors sold the shares anyway, worried about the cost.

    Amazon reported third-quarter 2026 results on October 29 in an earnings release filed with an 8-K that day, followed by its 10-Q quarterly report on October 30. Net sales rose 12% to $201.9 billion. Operating income, the profit from running the business before interest, taxes and investment gains, rose to $28.1 billion, a record 13.9% operating margin. Amazon Web Services (AWS), the company’s cloud computing unit, grew sales 39.3% to $46.0 billion, its fastest growth in nearly five years, and earned $17.8 billion in operating income. Trailing-12-month free cash flow swung to an outflow of $42.4 billion. Amazon said the swing was driven by a $94.8 billion increase in spending on property and equipment, primarily for artificial intelligence.

    The Associated Press reported several further details. Amazon guided fourth-quarter sales to $240 billion to $247 billion, against an analyst expectation of $244.16 billion. Third-quarter results trailed FactSet consensus of $1.97 per share on $202.2 billion in sales, and shares fell about 7% in after-hours trading. CEO Andy Jassy reaffirmed plans to spend $220 billion in capital this year, largely on AI data centers, up from $128 billion last year. Jassy said Amazon is installing an AI chip about every 14 seconds and that “customers are gobbling it up.” Amazon also pledged earlier in October to invest more than $1 billion over five years in communities that host its data centers. In the same week, Alphabet’s purchases of property and equipment topped $51 billion in its latest quarter.

    Executive Summary

    Amazon’s third quarter fell slightly short of Wall Street’s expectations. Per-share earnings were $1.89, total sales grew 12%, and the holiday-quarter outlook was cautious. Inside those totals, the business performed unevenly. AWS accelerated to 39.3% growth from 37% the prior quarter, Amazon posted its highest-ever operating margin, and operating cash flow rose 29% to $168.3 billion over the trailing 12 months.

    For infrastructure, the most important point is how concentrated the profits are. AWS produced roughly 23% of Amazon’s sales but about 63% of its operating income. Amazon’s capital spending (money for long-lived assets such as buildings, servers and chips) is now large enough to exceed the company’s operating cash, and Amazon describes the increase as primarily for AI. Jassy justifies the spending with AWS’s trajectory: over 40% revenue growth projected in both 2027 and 2028. In practice, that makes AWS’s growth the pacing variable for one of the largest data center build programs in the industry.

    The market’s reaction reflects a question about cash, not about operations. Investors are weighing a record margin against a $42.4 billion free cash outflow. The answer depends on whether AWS can turn today’s AI capacity into revenue fast enough to cover the spending.

    AWS Earns the Profit That Pays for the Build

    Amazon’s segment figures show a business whose profits come mostly from one unit. AWS’s $46.0 billion in quarterly sales was about 23% of Amazon’s $201.9 billion total. Its $17.8 billion operating income was about 63% of the company’s $28.1 billion. AWS also supplied $6.4 billion of the $10.7 billion year-over-year increase in operating income, roughly 60%. Its operating margin was about 39% in the quarter, up from roughly 34.5% a year earlier, based on Amazon’s reported segment figures. AWS is growing faster and becoming more profitable at the same time.

    That concentration is what links AWS to the capital budget. Amazon attributes the $94.8 billion jump in equipment purchases primarily to AI, and Jassy’s $220 billion plan for the year is largely for AI data centers. Jassy framed the spending explicitly as an AWS bet in the earnings release: “Our AWS investment in functionality and infrastructure is working,” citing a $184 billion annualized revenue run rate (the quarter’s sales times four) and projected growth of over 40% in both 2027 and 2028. Amazon’s retail segments are improving their margins, but they grow at mid-single-digit rates and are not what this spending is sized for. When one segment earns most of the profit and its projected growth is the stated reason for the spending, that segment’s trajectory becomes the company’s capital plan in practice.

    That has direct consequences for the companies that build and supply data centers: chipmakers, makers of electrical and cooling equipment, utilities, developers and construction trades. Their demand signal from Amazon is now, in effect, AWS’s growth guide. For scale, 40% growth applied to the current $184 billion run rate would mean roughly $74 billion of additional annual revenue. That revenue would need capacity built, powered and filled before it can be booked.

    Capital Spending Has Moved Past Operating Cash

    Amazon defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus purchases of property and equipment, net of proceeds and incentives. On that basis, Amazon went from a $14.8 billion inflow a year ago to a $42.4 billion outflow over the trailing 12 months. Operating cash flow was $168.3 billion, so net equipment purchases over the same period were roughly $210.7 billion. Amazon is now spending more on physical infrastructure than its operations generate.

    This is not a sign of operating distress. Operating cash rose 29%, and the outflow is the result of a choice about how much to spend. Amazon’s own description of free cash flow states that its financial focus is “long-term, sustainable growth in free cash flow,” and the current outflow is a wager that AI capacity converts into future inflows. The test comes later. Servers and chips are expensed over several years as depreciation, so today’s purchases will appear as costs on AWS’s books in coming quarters. AWS’s margin will then show whether the new capacity is earning its keep. Amazon is also not alone in this: Alphabet’s spending on property and equipment topped $51 billion in a single quarter.

    What the Demand Evidence Does and Does Not Show

    The strongest evidence for Amazon’s thesis is AWS’s reported revenue, which accelerated from 37% growth to 39.3% on a base of more than $40 billion a quarter. Other indicators point the same way. Fortune 500 spending on Bedrock, AWS’s inference service for running trained AI models, rose nearly 7 times year over year. Bedrock token volume, a measure of how much text the models process, rose nearly 17 times. Amazon also listed new AWS agreements with Meta, NVIDIA, OpenAI, Oracle, Salesforce, Verizon, NATO and others, and Jassy said customers are “gobbling up” capacity as Amazon installs an AI chip about every 14 seconds.

    These indicators carry different weight. Token volume growing far faster than AWS revenue is a measure of how much work customers are running, not how much money that work generates. Amazon does not break out Bedrock revenue, so the conversion from volume to dollars cannot be checked. The customer list shows breadth, but without contract values or durations it cannot be read as contracted backlog. The over-40% projections for 2027 and 2028 are management forecasts, not commitments. The capacity build, however, is a commitment Amazon is already paying for.

    Why a Record Margin Still Sold Off

    The headline miss was narrow. Earnings were $1.89 per share against $1.97 expected, and sales were $201.9 billion against $202.2 billion. The year-over-year drop in net income reflects $9.5 billion of pre-tax gains on Amazon’s Anthropic investments in the prior-year quarter, not weaker operations. Amazon said the shift of Prime Day into the second quarter reduced third-quarter growth by about 400 basis points (four percentage points). North America operating income nearly doubled to $8.7 billion from $4.8 billion.

    The fourth-quarter guidance midpoint of $243.5 billion sits slightly below the $244.16 billion consensus. Neither that gap nor the third-quarter miss fully accounts for a 7% after-hours decline. A more plausible reading is that investors are pricing how much cash the business consumes. Amazon is also spending to keep local support for its build: more than $1 billion pledged over five years to data center communities as the industry faces pushback from residents and officials. Adding new capacity now involves more than chips and buildings.

    Background

    Amazon reports three segments. North America and International hold its retail businesses, and Amazon Web Services rents computing, storage and AI services to companies and governments. Faster delivery, driven by robotics, AI and more efficient warehousing, helped Amazon overtake Walmart in February as the largest US company by revenue. Within AWS, Bedrock hosts AI models from OpenAI, Anthropic and other developers. Amazon is also an investor in Anthropic.

    Amazon’s capital spending has escalated quickly. The company spent $128 billion in 2025, announced a $200 billion plan for 2026 in February, and raised it to $220 billion in July. Like other large cloud providers, Amazon is building data centers and filling them with AI chips at a pace that now exceeds its operating cash flow. That spending has drawn scrutiny from investors over returns, and from residents and officials over the local impact of new facilities.

    Sources

    Source: Amazon offers cautious view after disappointing 3Q results but delivers strong cloud growth — AP News coverage of Amazon’s third-quarter 2026 results, fourth-quarter outlook and AI capital spending plans.

    Primary sources: Amazon.com, Inc. Form 8-K, filed October 29, 2026; Exhibit 99.1: Amazon.com Announces Third Quarter Results; Exhibit 99.2: Non-GAAP Financial Measures; Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed October 30, 2026.

  • At $130-145bn Capex, Meta’s AI Data Centers Start to Look Like a Cloud Business

    At $130-145bn Capex, Meta’s AI Data Centers Start to Look Like a Cloud Business

    TL;DR · 30-second read

    The Short Version

    Meta, the company behind Facebook and Instagram, now expects to spend between $130 billion and $145 billion this year. The cost of the huge computer buildings that power artificial intelligence keeps climbing. This is the second time this year Meta has raised that figure.

    The bill is biting. In the latest three months, the cash Meta had left after all its spending shrank to $784 million, from $8.5 billion a year earlier. Its shares fell about 10 percent.

    The twist: other companies are offering to pay Meta more than it paid for its computing power. Meta may start renting that power out.

    Meta has raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to between $130bn and $145bn, DatacenterDynamics reported on August 2, 2026. The range had been $115bn–$135bn at the start of the year and $125bn–$145bn in April. The increase comes as AI data center costs rise. In the same week, Amazon lifted its own capex guidance by $20bn and cited the cost of memory for AI servers.

    Meta shares fell around 10 percent. Quarterly free cash flow dropped to $784m, its lowest level in five years, compared with $8.5bn a year earlier. Revenue rose 28 percent to $61bn and profit fell 14 percent to $6bn. Meta again confirmed its interest in becoming a cloud provider. It recently hired AWS cloud lead David Brown, and it is reportedly in early talks to rent compute to Anthropic in a deal that could be worth as much as $10bn.

    Executive Summary

    Meta now expects to spend $130bn to $145bn this year on capital projects, the long-lived assets such as AI servers, data center buildings and the electrical and cooling systems that support them. This is the second upward revision of 2026. The midpoint of the range has risen from $125bn at the start of the year to $137.5bn. The latest step lifts the bottom of the range and leaves the $145bn ceiling set in April unchanged.

    The spending is now visibly squeezing Meta’s cash generation. Free cash flow of $784m for the quarter was a fraction of the $8.5bn Meta generated a year earlier, and the stock fell around 10 percent. Amazon’s shares rose after its own capex increase. The difference shows that investors distinguish between AI spending that feeds an existing cloud business and AI spending whose return is still prospective.

    The bigger strategic signal is Mark Zuckerberg’s remark that Meta is receiving offers for its compute “at a significant premium over what we paid for it.” Three things point the same way: that remark, a senior cloud hire from AWS, and reported talks with Anthropic. Together they suggest Meta’s AI fleet may become a product it sells as well as a cost it carries. That would matter for AI developers hunting for capacity, for incumbent clouds, and for the suppliers who build and power data centers.

    The Raise Lands at the Floor, Not the Ceiling

    Meta’s new range of $130bn to $145bn is its second upward revision of 2026. The year opened at $115bn–$135bn, and April’s update moved it to $125bn–$145bn. This time the top of the range held at $145bn and the bottom rose by $5bn. Since the start of the year, the midpoint has climbed from $125bn to $137.5bn, an increase of $12.5bn or 10 percent. The latest step, however, is a narrowing. Meta is signalling that it is less likely to land at the low end. It is not signalling that it has found room to go higher.

    The increase comes as AI data center costs rise. In the same week, Amazon raised its guidance by $20bn and pointed specifically to the price of memory for AI servers. That context matters for how the number is read. Capital expenditure can rise because a company is building more. It can also rise because each unit it builds costs more. Meta has not said how its increase splits between the two. Amazon’s explanation is a reminder that at least part of the industry’s recent guidance creep reflects price rather than volume.

    Why Meta’s Data Centers Start to Look Like a Cloud Business

    The most consequential line from the earnings call was not the capex figure. It was Zuckerberg’s observation that Meta is “getting a lot of offers for compute at a significant premium over what we paid for it.” Compute here means the processing capacity of Meta’s AI server fleet. If outside buyers will pay more than Meta’s cost for that capacity, every server Meta installs has two possible uses. It can train and run Meta’s own models, or it can be rented to someone else at a margin. That shifts the capex line from pure cost toward something closer to inventory.

    Meta has taken steps consistent with acting on that. It again confirmed its interest in becoming a cloud provider, it recently hired AWS cloud lead David Brown, and it is reportedly in early talks to rent compute to Anthropic. That deal could be worth as much as $10bn. For scale, $10bn is roughly 7 percent of the low end of this year’s capex range. That is meaningful, but a single deal of that size would not by itself change the investment case, and the talks are described as early.

    The effects would reach both sides of the market. AI developers that cannot secure enough capacity from established clouds would gain another large supplier. Incumbent cloud providers would face a competitor whose capacity was financed by an advertising business rather than by cloud customers. Data center developers and equipment vendors could find Meta’s demand extending beyond what its own apps require. None of this is settled. Running a cloud business requires customer contracts, service-level commitments, support and sales functions that Meta has not historically built. The direction, though, is visible in what the company has said and done.

    Why Investors Treated Meta and Amazon Differently

    Amazon raised its guidance and its shares jumped. Meta raised its guidance and its shares fell around 10 percent. The cash figures help explain the gap. Free cash flow is the cash left after operating costs and capital spending. Meta’s was $784m for the quarter, its lowest level in five years, against $8.5bn a year earlier. Revenue grew 28 percent to $61bn, but profit fell 14 percent to $6bn, so costs are growing faster than sales.

    One reasonable reading of the split reaction is about visibility. Amazon’s spending feeds a business that already sells computing capacity to customers, so investors can see where the return comes from. Meta’s spending serves its own products, and much of the payoff depends on AI products that Zuckerberg described as “coming.” Meta’s third-quarter revenue forecast of $61bn to $64bn has a midpoint of $62.5bn, below the $63.1bn Wall Street expected, so it offered little near-term offset. Renting out capacity is one way Meta could make the return on its data centers easier to see. That is another reason the cloud ambition and the capex number belong in the same story.

    What the Spending Means Down the Supply Chain

    For suppliers of power, cooling and construction, guidance at this level signals sustained demand from one of the largest private buyers of data center infrastructure. For a transformer maker or a cooling vendor, though, the useful question is not the dollar total. It is how many megawatts of capacity the money buys, on what timetable, and where. Meta has not broken that out. And if more of each dollar is going to pricier components such as memory, then $137.5bn buys less physical build-out than the same sum would have a year ago.

    A cloud push would add another layer. Capacity built for external customers generally has to meet those customers’ expectations for reliability and connectivity. It could also extend Meta’s need for sites, power and cooling beyond its internal requirements. Until Meta says how much capacity it intends to offer to others, suppliers can plan only against the capex range.

    Background

    Meta Platforms, founded by Mark Zuckerberg as Facebook, owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp. It is one of a handful of “hyperscalers,” companies that design and operate their own data centers at enormous scale. Unlike Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure or Google Cloud, Meta has historically built that capacity only for its own apps and advertising systems. It has not rented it to outside customers.

    The race to build artificial intelligence has changed the scale of that spending. Training and running large AI models requires dense clusters of specialized servers, along with the electricity, cooling and networking to support them. That has made capex guidance from Meta, Amazon and their peers one of the most closely watched demand signals for chipmakers, memory suppliers, data center developers and utilities.

    Sources

    Source: Meta boosts AI data center capex, forecasts $130-145bn spend — DatacenterDynamics on Meta’s raised 2026 capital expenditure guidance, second-quarter results and cloud ambitions.