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  • MISO Forecasts 35% Load Growth by 2035 as Data Centers Reshape the Grid

    MISO Forecasts 35% Load Growth by 2035 as Data Centers Reshape the Grid

    The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the grid operator coordinating electricity across a footprint spanning 15 U.S. states and the Canadian province of Manitoba — expects electric load to jump roughly 35% by 2035, according to an April 2026 report from Utility Dive. The primary driver named in the forecast is data center growth.

    A 35% increase over roughly a decade represents a dramatic break from the era of essentially flat U.S. electricity demand that prevailed from the late 2000s through the early 2020s, and it puts one of the largest grid operators in North America on record quantifying the scale of the AI-and-cloud buildout.

    Executive Summary

    MISO’s forecast is a planning document, not a press release from a company selling something — which makes it one of the more consequential data points in the ongoing debate over how much electricity the data center boom will actually consume. Regional transmission organizations (RTOs) like MISO exist to keep supply and demand balanced in real time and to plan the wires and generation needed years ahead. When an RTO raises its ten-year demand outlook by more than a third, that number flows directly into transmission planning, capacity auctions, and the resource plans of dozens of utilities.

    The significance is twofold. First, it validates what individual utilities across the Midwest and Gulf South have been reporting piecemeal: hyperscale data center projects are arriving in interconnection queues at a pace with no modern precedent. Second, it sets up a decade of hard trade-offs. Meeting 35% growth requires new generation, new transmission, and new large-load interconnection rules — all on timelines that historically run slower than the two-to-three-year construction schedule of a data center campus.

    For the infrastructure industry, the headline number is both an opportunity signal and a warning: the grid is now the binding constraint on digital infrastructure growth, and the regions that solve power delivery fastest will win the next wave of siting decisions.

    The End of Flat Demand Is Now Official Planning Doctrine

    For roughly fifteen years, U.S. grid planners could assume that efficiency gains — LED lighting, better HVAC, industrial offshoring — would offset economic growth, keeping total electricity demand nearly flat. That assumption underpinned everything from utility rate cases to power plant retirement schedules. A 35% load-growth forecast from MISO formally retires it for one of the largest grid footprints in North America.

    What makes an RTO forecast different from a consultant’s projection is accountability: MISO must plan transmission and resource adequacy against this number. If the forecast is right and the buildout lags, the result is capacity shortfalls and price spikes. If the forecast is wrong and infrastructure is overbuilt, ratepayers carry stranded costs. Either error is expensive, which is why the assumptions behind the number — how much announced data center load actually materializes — deserve as much scrutiny as the number itself.

    Data Centers as the Marginal Buyer of Power

    A data center is, from the grid’s perspective, an unusual customer: it demands large blocks of power (often hundreds of megawatts per campus), runs at high utilization around the clock, and wants to connect years faster than traditional industrial load. When such customers become the dominant source of demand growth, they effectively set the terms of grid expansion — and grid operators, utilities, and regulators are still working out who pays for the upgrades those connections require.

    The economics cut in several directions. Utilities in MISO territory gain a growth story they have not had in a generation, which supports investment in wires and generation. Existing ratepayers face the risk of subsidizing infrastructure built for loads that may not fully arrive — a concern regulators in several states are already addressing through special large-load tariffs and financial-commitment requirements. Data center developers, meanwhile, face the reality that power availability, not land or fiber, now determines where and when they can build.

    Winners, Losers, and the Speed Mismatch

    The core tension in a 35%-by-2035 scenario is timing. Gas turbines face multi-year order backlogs, new nuclear operates on decade-plus horizons, and large transmission projects routinely take seven to ten years from planning to energization. Data center campuses go from groundbreaking to load in two or three. That mismatch favors whoever can bridge it: developers with early interconnection positions, utilities with spare capacity or fast-track large-load processes, suppliers of grid equipment, and operators pursuing on-site or co-located generation.

    It also raises competitive stakes between regions. MISO’s footprint — stretching from the upper Midwest to the Gulf Coast — competes with PJM, ERCOT, and the Southeast for hyperscale siting. A credible, well-executed plan to serve 35% more load is itself an economic-development asset; a forecast without matching buildout is a queue of frustrated customers who will site elsewhere.

    Forecast Versus Reality: The Phantom Load Question

    Every load forecast in the current environment must grapple with duplicate and speculative requests. Developers commonly file interconnection requests in multiple jurisdictions for the same project, and some announced campuses will never be built. Grid operators know this and apply screening assumptions, but the industry has little historical data on what fraction of AI-era announced load converts to actual consumption. The honest read of any 35% figure is that it is a planning scenario with meaningful uncertainty in both directions — actual growth could undershoot if projects evaporate, or overshoot if AI demand keeps compounding.

    That uncertainty is not a reason to dismiss the forecast; it is a reason to watch how MISO and its member utilities structure commitments. Mechanisms that require large customers to put capital at risk — minimum-take contracts, collateral requirements, contribution to network upgrades — are the market’s way of separating real load from phantom load, and their adoption across the footprint will be a better indicator of true demand than any single projection.

    Background

    MISO was founded in 1998 and became the first FERC-approved regional transmission organization in the United States in 2001. It coordinates generation and high-voltage transmission across a footprint stretching from the upper Midwest down through the Gulf South, serving tens of millions of people through its member utilities. Like other RTOs, it does not own power plants or lines; it operates markets and plans the system that its members build.

    The forecast arrives amid a broader U.S. re-acceleration of electricity demand after more than a decade of stagnation, driven by AI and cloud data center construction, manufacturing reshoring, and electrification. Grid operators across the country have been revising load outlooks upward repeatedly since the early 2020s, and interconnection queues for both large loads and new generation have swelled to historic levels — making forecasts like this one central to the industry debate over how much of the announced boom is real.

    Source: MISO expects load to jump 35% by 2035 on data center growth — Utility Dive report, April 21, 2026, on MISO’s ten-year load forecast.

  • PJM Moves to Rein In Data Center Demand on the World’s Busiest Grid

    PJM Moves to Rein In Data Center Demand on the World’s Busiest Grid

    PJM Interconnection — the regional grid operator serving 13 states and the District of Columbia, including Northern Virginia’s “Data Center Alley,” the densest concentration of data centers on Earth — is taking steps to rein in data center electricity demand, according to reporting from public broadcaster WHRO published April 20, 2026. The move signals that the operator of the world’s most data-center-heavy grid no longer treats hyperscale load growth as something to be absorbed without conditions.

    Executive Summary

    The significance here is less any single rule than the direction of travel. PJM is the largest wholesale electricity market operator in the United States, coordinating power for roughly 65 million people, and its territory hosts the global capital of the data center industry. For most of the past decade, the operating assumption in that territory was that if you could buy land and fiber, the grid would eventually follow. A grid operator moving to constrain or condition data center demand inverts that assumption.

    For the infrastructure industry, this matters in two ways. First, it converts power from a procurement line item into a gating factor: projects in PJM territory may increasingly be shaped by what the grid operator will allow, and on what timeline, rather than purely by developer ambition. Second, it sets a precedent. PJM’s rules and market designs are watched — and often copied — by other regional operators facing their own waves of AI-driven load requests. What PJM does about data centers rarely stays in PJM.

    The Grid Operator Blinks First

    A regional transmission organization (RTO) like PJM does not generate power or build data centers; it runs the wholesale market and keeps supply and demand in balance across its footprint. Its core legal obligation is reliability. When such an operator starts “taking steps to rein in” a category of demand, it is effectively saying that the pace of load requests has begun to strain its ability to guarantee that balance. That is a notable admission from the operator whose territory — anchored by Loudoun County, Virginia — handles more data center load than any comparable grid in the world.

    The economic backdrop makes the move legible. PJM’s recent capacity auctions — the mechanism through which it pays power plants to be available in future years — have cleared at sharply higher prices, with data center growth widely cited as a principal driver. Those costs flow through to every ratepayer in the footprint, not just the data centers causing the growth. Political and regulatory pressure to distinguish between speculative interconnection requests and real projects, and to make large loads bear more of the costs they create, has been building accordingly.

    From Land-and-Fiber to Power-First Siting

    If the grid operator for the world’s largest data center market is imposing limits, the site selection calculus changes for everyone downstream. Developers who counted on Northern Virginia’s unmatched fiber density and cloud ecosystem now have to weigh whether a grid connection will arrive on a bankable schedule. That logic has already been pushing projects toward secondary markets — and toward on-site or contracted generation that reduces dependence on the shared grid. Constraints in PJM accelerate both trends.

    There is also a sorting effect within the industry. Well-capitalized hyperscalers and established operators can absorb longer timelines, post larger financial commitments, and negotiate directly with utilities and generators. Thinly financed projects that were effectively options on future power — reserving grid capacity they might never use — are the natural target of any tightening. To the extent PJM’s steps separate firm demand from speculative demand, the result could be a healthier queue, even if headline growth numbers shrink.

    Reliability, Ratepayers, and the Politics of AI Load

    The uncomfortable center of this story is cost allocation. Electricity markets were not designed for single customers that show up requesting the load of a mid-sized city. When capacity prices rise to meet that demand, households and small businesses share the bill, and state regulators and legislators hear about it. A grid operator that visibly disciplines data center demand is, among other things, managing its own political legitimacy across 13 states with very different attitudes toward hosting the AI build-out.

    For the data center industry, the fair response is not to dismiss the concern but to engage on mechanism design: rules that require demonstrated financial commitment, that pay large loads for flexibility (curtailing during grid stress), and that let them bring their own generation can protect reliability without rationing growth. The risk, from the industry’s side, is blunt instruments — caps or moratoria that stall real projects along with speculative ones. Which kind of instrument PJM has chosen is the central question the reporting raises.

    Background

    PJM Interconnection grew out of one of the world’s oldest power pools, dating to 1927, and today runs the largest wholesale electricity market in the United States. Its footprint includes Northern Virginia, where cheap land, dense fiber routes, and proximity to federal and internet-exchange infrastructure made Loudoun County the global capital of the data center industry over the past two decades. That concentration was long a point of regional pride and tax revenue; the AI boom has turned it into a grid-planning challenge, as power demand in the region — flat for years — began climbing steeply on the back of hyperscale computing.

    By 2026 the tension was visible on ratepayer bills and in regulatory dockets: PJM’s capacity auction prices had risen sharply with data center growth cited as a key driver, and policymakers across its 13-state footprint were debating who should pay for the infrastructure the AI build-out requires. PJM’s move to rein in data center demand is the market operator’s entry into that debate.

    Source: The Mid-Atlantic’s electric grid operator is taking steps to rein in data center demand — WHRO reporting, April 20, 2026, on PJM Interconnection’s moves to constrain data center load growth.