Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT) struck a $9.1 billion, 20-year computing deal with Anthropic this week, leasing 191 megawatts of power at its Rockdale, Texas campus. The deal could grow to $16.1 billion if extended twice by five years each. Shares initially jumped more than 20% before giving back most of the gain.

Why This Matters

Riot and fellow bitcoin miner CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLSK) are both completing a shift from mining bitcoin to renting out power and data center space to AI companies.

That raises the real question: is this a genuine, durable business model change, or a temporary boost dressed up while bitcoin mining economics stay weak?

The Bull and Bear Case: Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT)

The Anthropic deal alone is expected to generate $9.1 billion in revenue over 20 years. It follows Riot's earlier deal with AMD, giving the Rockdale site what Compass Point analyst Michael Donovan called a "two-tenant campus carrying $9.8 billion of contracted data center revenue." Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT)'s own second-quarter revenue beat expectations too, at $174.2 million versus the $154.3 million analysts modeled, helped by the data center business. Analyst Donovan reiterated a buy rating and $29 price target, arguing that tighter scrutiny of new power projects by Texas grid operator ERCOT could actually raise the value of power capacity Riot has already secured.

Shares gave back almost their entire initial pop on the Anthropic news, a sign investor enthusiasm cooled fast. The pivot itself shows weak underlying bitcoin economics, where falling prices, rising competition, and shrinking mining rewards squeeze miners until some operate at a loss. Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT) is now betting its future largely on long-term AI tenant contracts instead of bitcoin price appreciation. It is a bet that depends on customers like Anthropic needing this specific site for the next two decades.

The Bull and Bear Case: CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLSK)  

CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLSK) signed its own 20-year, $6.6 billion triple-net lease at its Sandersville site with a high investment-grade tenant. CEO Matt Schultz said the firm has already fully funded the equity portion of that project while pre-paying for long-lead equipment to stay on schedule. CFO Gary Vecchiarelli disclosed the firm has "materially de-risked execution while preserving balance sheet flexibility," even with weak bitcoin mining economics still weighing on results.

The numbers show how much bitcoin mining has hurt results: fiscal third-quarter revenue fell 30.5% year over year to $138.0 million, and the company swung to a $239.8 million net loss from $257.4 million in net income a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA fell to negative $113.0 million from a positive $377.7 million. CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLSK)'s promise to convert "infrastructure optionality into durable cash flows" is still just that, a promise, since Sandersville lease revenue hasn't started flowing yet.